Stage 16 Recap.
Rohan Dennis puts in a blistering time to win Stage 16 of the Giro d’Italia while Yates holds on to pink.
A great TT with a few surprise performances. Mads Pedersen took the early lead and would have been beaten by Ryan Mullen had is not been for the combination of Mullen cramping and Pedersen drafting his team car. He was later penalised 30 seconds for doing so.
Alex Dowsett put in a strong ride to take the lead but wasn’t sat there long as we saw Tony Martin return to the form of a few years ago with a huge time that looked like it could take the day. Van Emden came close but it was Rohan Dennis who was the only man able to beat it, clocking a time of 40 minutes at an average speed of 51.3kph. Mind boggling stuff.
Behind Dumoulin put in a strong ride but probably not as good as he was hoping while Simon Yates did better than expected and retained the pink jersey. The surprise of the day was Fabio Aru who posted a top 5 time when he crossed the line but was later docked 20 seconds as he’d gained some assistance from the Italian camera bikes.
In terms of GC.
Simon Yates put in a great ride to retain the pink jersey despite a strong effort from Tom Dumoulin while Chris Froome was solid, gaining time on all but Dumoulin and moving back into the top 5. Pinot was the biggest loser, ceding over 3 minutes to Dennis and moving over 4 minutes down to Yates on GC.
Another good day punting! Our boy Ben O’Connor absolutely smashed Carapaz to bring home the H2H and if you follow me over on twitter you’ll have got on Rohan Dennis to win at 5.5 (unibet) just after he went through the first time check. Even if you didn’t you will still have got a nice 4pt return from today.
155km in the North of Italy from Riva del Garda to Iseo. Despite being in the foothills of the Dolomites the route will avoid the high mountains and opts instead for a bumpy route with only a single categorised climb.
The riders will climb immediately from kilometre zero for 10km up to Molina di Ledro. It’s uncategorised but by most peoples standards is a pretty tough challenge, averaging 5%.
The riders will then descend for a long while until they hit the 3rd category climb to Lorino, another 10km ascent but this time at only 4%. Beyond this there is only one more serious climb at around 65km to go and after descending this it’s flat into the finish town of Iseo.
The final kilometres are pretty straightforward by Giro standards bar a few roundabouts and the usual street furniture. Whether it’s a breakaway or a bunch sprint it shouldn’t cause any issues.
Today is a day for the breakaway. The opening climb up to Molina di Ledro is the perfect launchpad for a strong group to form and the bumpy terrain will take it’s toll on the sprinters who will be feeling some serious fatigue at this point in the race.
The GC teams really won’t want a hard day with the triplet of mountain stages we have coming up. I think this will work heavily in the breaks favour as it’s been these teams that tended to keep the break on a tight leash and not the sprinters teams.
We haven’t had a break stick so far and while this isn’t a reason to say one will tomorrow I think it will mean lots of teams are still pretty unsatisfied with their Giro and will have had their eyes on tomorrow for a while. Expect lots of action in the opening kilometres (not that we’ll see it as the climb is largely tunnelled) and for a strong break to go, potentially quite a large one.
A lot of usual suspects will make the break tomorrow and of those it will be Tony Martin who will take the win.
This is really a tough stage to call as it could go a number of ways. If it ends up coming down to a sprint then it’ll be one of Elia Viviani or Sam Bennett, both of whom have been brilliant so far with Viviani getting the edge in pure speed and Bennett seemingly the more versatile rider. If the break does stick, and I think it will, then it could be any number of guys.
You can’t go wrong with Luis Leon Sanchez on a stage like this. He has the climbing ability to make the break and then push the pace on the first half of the stage but he also has the raw watts to get away from a small group when it gets to crunch time later in the race. He didn’t look to be gunning it in the TT, practically gaining a second rest day and with Lopez continuing to slip down the GC it’s likely he’ll given even more freedom.
Of similar ilk is Tony Martin. He will be fuming after coming so close to his first GT stage win since 2014 and tomorrow looks like the perfect day for him to channel this into a win. He’s shown some of his best form in years so far in this race and I think he has a great chance of making the break and then attacking it on the flat run in. It’s tough to tell if today’s effort will put him off going on the attack tomorrow but by professional standards a 40 minute effort isn’t too taxing and I think he’ll be massively up for tomorrow.
Matteo Montaguti has been exceptional so far in this Giro. He’s already made a number of breaks and has tended to be one of the last men standing. His climbing ability should make the first half of the stage feel relatively pedestrian giving him more energy for the fast finale. If he were to win he would have to go solo as he doesn’t pack much of a sprint but with the form he’s got I think this is entirely possible.
Matej Mohoric has already won from a late attack in this Giro but as a young rider I’m sure he won’t be satisfied. He’s got the potential to be a serial stage hunter in the future and is arguably one of the best from a breakaway situation already. He finished nearly 3 minutes down on Dennis today which is by no means slow but he clearly wasn’t giving it is all. He’s looked strong all race and has the ability to use even small rises to create a gap between himself and his breakaway compatriots.
The breakaway would not be complete without an Androni rider or two and they deserve a win for their efforts so far. The most likely of these is probably Davide Ballerini who could use his top-end speed in a sprint from the breakaway as could Francesco Gavazzi who has looked particularly strong this Giro with two top 10’s.
Talking of fast finishers, I quite like the look of Koen Bouwman for this stage as well. His strong finishing kick could be perfect if small group comes to the finish but I’m worried that at 24 he’s starting to feel the strain this far into a Grand Tour.
Final mention goes to Nico Denz who is on a bit of a breakthrough. He rode well in the TT beating a number of the GC guys and placing inside the top 25. His confidence will be sky high and he possesses immense power on the flat and a good sprint.
Unfortunately a lot of these guys have been priced pretty conservatively and with tomorrow’s stage so unpredictable I’m not sure their worth backing. Instead I’ve gone with a bit of fun on some longshots that could be saving themselves for tomorrow and guys that have shown some form earlier in the race.
0.1pts on Mads Wurtz Schmidt to win at 126 (bet365)
0.1pts on Lars Ytting Bak to win at 201 (bet365)
0.1pts on Marco Frapporti to win at 251 (bet365)
0.1pts on Marco Coledan to win at 301 (bet365)
0.1pts on Mattia Cattaneo to win at 126 (bet365)
Also keep an eye on the Exchanges for some long prices on the riders mentioned under Contenders.
Match Ups –
Tough stage for match ups, will update when more bookmakers have prices up.
As always keep an eye out on Twitter(@eachwayvelo) throughout pre-event and throughout the stage to keep up to date with any bets of the exchanges or in-play.